WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Day 3
Images courtesy of the NWS Weather Prediction Center
Excessive Rainfall Forecast Discussion |
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
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FOUS30 KWBC 111910
QPFERD
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Jan 11 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Gallina
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025
...Louisiana Coast...
A frontal wave spawned by an upper level disturbance moving between
a Southwest U.S. upper level low and a subtropical ridge near Cuba
is expected to bring precipitable water values up to 1.5" on the
heels of south to southwest 850 hPa flow from the Gulf of Mexico of
20-30 kts. Instability appears meager -- ML CAPE of perhaps a few
hundred J/kg -- and the system is progressive. The 12z HREF
probabilities show that 0.5"+ totals don`t persist anywhere along
or near the Louisiana coast for more than an hour or two, and that
while there is a high probability of 2"+ totals, the probability of
3"+ totals is quite low. The probability of rainfall exceeding
flash flood guidance is considered to be non-zero, but less than 5
percent.
Roth
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025 - 12Z Tue Jan 14 2025
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Bann
Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt