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ACPN50 PHFO 222339
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Sat Jul 22 2017

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda, located about 500 miles east of
Hilo, Hawaii.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5
days.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda (CP1/EP062017)

...FERNANDA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EAST OF HAWAII...
As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Jul 22
the center of Fernanda was located near 19.5N 147.4W
with movement WNW at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Public Advisory Number 44

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 22 2017 
WTPA31 PHFO 222038
TCPCP1
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Advisory Number  44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062017
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 22 2017
 
...FERNANDA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EAST OF HAWAII...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 147.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Fernanda was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 147.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 
9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
until dissipation on Monday, with some increase in forward speed. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the remnant low
of Fernanda is expected to dissipate by Monday. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the
Post-Tropical Cyclone, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP, WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO, and on the Web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/HSFNP.php.
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Forecast/Advisory Number 44

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017 
WTPA21 PHFO 222036
TCMCP1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062017
2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 147.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 147.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 146.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.9N 148.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 147.4W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOHSFNP AND WMO
HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Discussion Number 44

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 22 2017 
WTPA41 PHFO 222043
TCDCP1
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Discussion Number  44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062017
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 22 2017
 
Due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, only limited and 
sporadic convection has been noted in the northern semicircle of
the poorly-defined low-level circulation center of Fernanda over
the past several hours. This convection has not been sufficiently 
persistent for the system to continue to be deemed a tropical 
cyclone, and Fernanda is now post-tropical. The initial intensity is
estimated to be 30 kt, based heavily on last night's ASCAT pass,
with these winds likely confined to the northern semicircle. 

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 285/8 kt. The 
increasingly shallow low is expected to continue on a west-northwest
to west track within the low- to mid-level trade wind flow supported
by a ridge well to the north, with some increase in forward speed. 
Although the forecast track takes the system over warmer waters,
the strong vertical wind shear will persist, due to a longwave
trough aloft to the northwest. Fernanda is expected to dissipate
to a trough after 36 hours, with this solution supported by
virtually all of the dynamical and statistical guidance.

This will be the final advisory issued by the Central Pacific 
Hurricane Center on Fernanda. For additional information on the
remnant low, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 19.5N 147.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  23/0600Z 19.9N 148.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1800Z 20.3N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Wind speed probabilities Number 44

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017

FOPA11 PHFO 222033
PWSCP1
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44  
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062017         
2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 150W       34  2  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
20N 151W       34  X  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BIRCHARD