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Precipitation Forecast Discussion

Quantitative Precipitation Discussion
Discussion Code: PFD
Discussion: Precipitation Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS04 KWBC 182059
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 19/0000 UTC THRU NOV 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN U.S...

HERE WE WENT TO PAINSTAKING DETAIL BUT CAME UP WITH FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED FORECAST. THE MEDIUM TO LONG WAVELENGTH MID LATITUDE TROUGH
/ CYCLONE SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST SHOULD BE WELL MODELED...AND
IN THE MASS FIELDS IT IS...WITH MODELS SHOWING STRONG AGREEMENT.
THE QPF DETAILS ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN GIVEN FAST
MOVEMENT....WEAK OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT...AND AN ON-AGAIN /
OFF-AGAIN DISTRIBUTION OF ISNTABILITY AS FORCING WASHES THROUGH
THE GULF AIRMASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS / MORE STABLE AIR TO THE
EAST / PICKING UP CAPE AGAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM.

INITIALLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURGING COLD FRONT.
WHERE THIS LINEAR CONVECTION OVERLAPS WITH CONCENTRATED WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AND AN EARLIER RAIN FOOT IN PARTS OF
IN/OH/PA...THERE IS SOME RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 0936 DESCRIBES THIS SITUATION. THE SQUALL LINE OR
BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL OUTRUN THE INSTABILITY AS IT CRESTS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION INTENSITY FALLING
OFF INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...AN
INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM AS SYNOPTIC FORCING EMERGES ONTO
THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS 170 METERS IN 12 HOURS AND A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET...THERE SHOULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO RAINFALL FROM
NORTHERN MARYLAND NORTHEASTWARD...ALTHOUGH SHORT RESIDENCE TIME /
FAST MOVEMENT WILL CAP AMOUNTS AT ABOUT 0.70 TO 1.20 INCHES ON
AVERAGE WITH ISOLATED TOTALS PERHAPS APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES.

THE MODELS DISPLAY SOME NORTH TO SOUTH VARITATION IN QPF DESPITE
THEIR SIMILAR MASS FIELDS. WPC QPF ADJUSTED FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...RELYING ON THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR.
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WE AIMED FOR GUIDANCE THAT EMPHASIZED THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET JUST INLAND FROM EASTERN PA UP THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND...SIDING WITH THE HREF MEAN AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE
GFS. NOTE THAT THIS APPROACH WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THE QPF FROM THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DIRECTED INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND THE MAIN BODY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
MUCH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WAVE SLIDES DOWN INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A SLIGHT SLOWING / DRYING
TREND IN THE MODELS FOR THE 00Z TO 00Z FORECAST...WE ARE STILL
FORECASTING FAIRLY HEAVY AMOUNTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND RAINFALL OF MODERATE INTENSITY KICKING IN ELSEWHERE
IN WESTERN WASHINGTON. FOR QPF WE USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
FOCUSING ESPECIALLY ON THE WRF-ARW2.


DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHWEST...

A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
FRONT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHICH WILL DRIVE A RATHER WELL-DEFINED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. 850/700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 3 SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WA AND WESTERN OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES OVER THIS REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PW VALUES ON THE OTHER HAND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TO 1.5 TO 2 SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS DEEPER LAYER AXIS OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND DEEPER LAYER
SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS WILL COUPLE WITH RATHER EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND HEAVY TOTALS THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. GENERALLY THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE WA/OR CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY THE
WESTERN OR COASTAL RANGES. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
ALSO FOCUS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN CA. SPILLOVER MOISTURE WILL
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SAWTOOTH/BITTERROOT RANGES SEEING SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS WELL. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE NORTHWEST...AND ESPECIALLY IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AS SNOW LEVELS DROP A BIT BUT THIS WILL BE A RATHER WARM
SYSTEM AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE COASTAL
RANGES AND CASCADES FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD ALONE. THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THE DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK COVERING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM LATE
MONDAY AND THERE WILL BE A TRAILING FRONT THAT STALLS OUT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN OR TO
THE SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. THIS BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF AK SETTLES SOUTH AND ABSORBS A SMALLER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SUBTROPICS NORTH OF HAWAII.
THE PHASING OF ENERGY WILL BACK THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SURGE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OR AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN WA. A STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL JET REACHING UPWARDS OF 50 KTS IS FORECAST TO AIM INTO THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL FOSTER 850/700 MB
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5 SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL AND PW
VALUES OVER 3 SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST
WITH AS MUCH AS 5+ INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES. CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL
RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL FOR SURE BE EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SURGE WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT DAY 3
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK PERIOD. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS
MORE  PREFERRED MASS FIELD TIMING/DEPTH.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...

DEEP LAYER COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROMOTE
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OFF
LAKE ONTARIO IMPACTING AREAS OF WESTERN NY. ON
MONDAY...INCREASINGLY ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO COME TO AN END. PLEASE CONSULT THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.


...FAR UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

AN ARCTIC STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA
WILL AMPLIFY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
DRIVE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHLY LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE U.P.
OF MI WITH A FOCUS ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ADJACENT NORTH
SHORE AREA. WPC QPF WAS GENERALLY TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.


...GULF COAST/FL PENINSULA...

THE MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES LATER MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION DOWN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL
INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING POOL OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ITSELF WITH RATHER CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY INITIALLY OVER AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS
BY LATE MONDAY BUT THEN THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ATTEMPTING TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY
AND THIS WILL TEND TO ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE FL
PENINSULA AND ESPECIALLY ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE WHERE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FL EAST COAST GIVEN THE
POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING AHEAD
OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH. A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS PREFERRED
WITH MORE WEIGHTING TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

BURKE/ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML



24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 476618 486619 489620 491622 494626 499634 505646 510655
      514669 515676 516685 516698 511710 508716 505720 502732
      495740 492744 490749 488754 489760 490767 490775 489780
      489787 486801 483806 479810 471816 463821 459823 457825
      458827 460832 464836 475850 481864 484867 485870 481875
      480881 477892 472900 468903 465905 462901 460896 461886
      461881 462878 461871 459868 455867 450868 438869 426869
      415870 410870 410862 412852 415849 418849 427856 434855
      437851 440846 443843 447840 448837 447834 443833 439835
      429839 411846 404846 398845 394843 388845 380850 372856
      367857 364861 357868 344880 335887 327892 323894 319898
      317901 313907 312911 308915 306920 305917 304912 304905
      304893 306880 310869 311864 307866 305871 301876 297884
      295889 295893 295899 295904 292912 287925 284936 280945
      275955 271962 265970 259977 255980 252980 249978 245979
      239981 235980 233978 231973 231965 232957 234951 236946
      241943 246941 253939 257930 262917 267907 270894 270887
      272882 273865 274859 276854 276851 273852 270856 262862
      255865 252865 251863 251856 253850 255845 258840 260836
      263831 267826 272822 278813 281802 282795 284791 291780
      295775 298773 304772 308775 309778 311777 314772 325750
      334730 342720 350711 363694 371684 378675 382670 388666
      392664 398662 404659 411656 425652 442637 450631 457625
 0.01 475618 474620 472620 471622 469623 467623 466623 464624
      462623
 0.01 540206 541197 540192 539181 536174 532167 526160 521154
      515149 510146 505144 501144 496149 494152 493158 491162
      488163 483170 479178 483184 487185 489184 492184 494187
      492192 486195 474201 469207 466210 462210 456214 452219
      450222 450227 451230 448233 445234 443238 440246 438251
      437257 435269 436277 437282 439285 441289 445291 449293
      453293 460295 466296 473301 478303 481302 493299 496302
      501304 508304 527251 527250 527247 527244 528242 528239
      529237 530234 531232 532230 533228 534228 535225
 0.01 506952 504944 501937 496931 491926 486922 482919 479919
      477920 479924 481932 484940 489947 492952 496955 499955
      503955 506952 506952
 0.01 378744 377743 375743 373745 375746 377745 378744
 0.01 375746 372745 368747 364750 357756 350764 344772 337779
      334782 330785 320802 308819 306824 309826 312826 320821
      330815 335808 342800 345796 346791 355772 361762 368756
      372751 375746
 0.01 307827 305825 304826 302827 304828 306828 307827
 0.01 268798 269796 268795 266795 264795 262795 260795 259795
      258795 257796 255796 253797 253798 253800 254800 255801
      255802 257801 259801 261801 263800 264800 266799 268798
      268798
 0.25 536207 537197 536188 533179 530174 526167 523163 517158
      515158 513160 511165 508165 504163 501165 499167 499171
      500175 504180 507187 511193 514197 521211 525217 530218
      533216 535212 536207
 0.25 522267 523256 523248 521239 519233 516227 512220 506211
      501204 497203 485204 479205 475209 474211 473216 475219
      478219 484222 485227 482228 477224 473226 464234 461235
      459235 456236 452257 451267 452275 455281 461284 467285
      471287 479290 484291 495290 502291 508292 513289 516284
      522267
 0.25 503681 502675 502671 499665 494653 490643 484633 481631
      477630 469633 451643 447647 443651 437659 432668 428678
      423684 420688 418687 420683 418675 415672 412672 399676
      390681 383687 376694 364709 354722 348732 343740 335758
      332765 336767 340766 346760 353753 366738 374731 381725
      394713 401708 402713 400717 402733 401740 400745 399751
      399759 401765 404768 405771 405775 403780 400783 392787
      384793 374799 367806 361812 355820 346837 343847 343852
      345855 353854 357852 366846 380834 386828 390825 393824
      397825 405826 410826 415824 423817 429816 433818 441821
      445819 447813 471788 476776 478763 481738 490721 495712
      498703 503681
 0.25 469218 468215 466216 466217 464219 462221 464223 465221
      466221 467220 468220 469218
 0.25 338860 338858 338856 336855 335856 333858 333859 332861
      331861 330863 330865 330866 329868 329870 330871 332871
      333869 334869 335867 335866 336865 337863 337862 338860
 0.25 247970 248968 248966 248964 246963 244962 243963 242964
      241965 240966 240968 241969 241970 243971 244971 246970
      247970
 0.50 533208 534199 534192 533185 531180 527175 525170 523165
      519162 516163 514171 512172 510170 506167 504171 507177
      510188 517196 521206 524211 529214 532211 533208
 0.50 518268 520259 520252 519241 514229 510222 503213 501209
      496206 488208 483208 480211 480215 481217 484221 487224
      487231 482231 477228 473229 470233 467239 465244 462258
      461267 463271 472277 482283 489285 493285 498286 507288
      511285 514280 518268 518268
 0.50 496683 496677 495671 492663 487649 484644 480640 475641
      471643 457645 452649 448654 442664 438675 431687 427700
      425705 424708 421711 415712 412716 410723 409730 408737
      407745 403757 406763 408766 412773 411778 408783 403787
      399790 391791 384797 379803 377809 377814 379816 382816
      393812 401805 404807 405811 409815 413816 416815 420811
      432792 437779 440774 443778 449788 449793 451795 454795
      460790 464786 468774 471760 473754 474745 475738 477732
      481726 483720 492697 496683
 0.50 396694 395689 392688 386691 378698 373703 370707 364718
      362729 356738 355742 360738 368730 376723 384715 390704
      396694
 0.50 371826 370821 366819 362821 359823 356826 353830 351834
      350840 352844 355845 357844 361841 364838 366835 369831
      371827 371826
 1.00 530205 530197 530186 527181 525176 522169 519169 518172
      517182 520188 523195 524200 525204 527207 530205
 1.00 516262 517254 517249 515240 512231 507224 502217 499214
      496212 492213 489216 490221 491234 483235 477231 473233
      471236 470243 472247 478253 480257 482262 484270 486274
      489277 498281 504283 507281 509278 513267 516262
 1.00 474670 474666 472664 469661 466659 463658 457658 453661
      451664 450669 452672 456669 461668 464669 468671 471672
      474670
 1.00 460736 459735 457735 457737 458739 459737 460736
 1.00 445713 445710 444708 443708 442708 442709 440711 439713
      439714 438717 439719 440719 440718 441718 443716 443715
      444714 445713
 1.00 440724 438722 437723 435724 434725 433725 432726 430727
      429728 427730 425731 425732 426734 427734 429734 431734
      433733 434733 436732 437729 439726 440724
 1.00 438746 437744 436745 435746 436748 438746 438746
 1.00 392799 392798 390799 392799 392799
 1.00 355837 356834 355834 354835 355837 355837
 1.50 524184 525182 524180 524179 523177 522176 522174 521175
      521178 522181 522182 524184 524185 524184
 1.50 514258 515252 515247 513239 510232 506227 497217 494218
      492221 492231 492239 486237 483237 480236 477234 474234
      473238 473242 478246 481249 482252 484258 487267 491272
      496276 503279 505278 507272 509264 514258
 2.00 512255 513247 511239 508233 504228 500225 496220 492222
      492230 494237 497242 501248 504253 505257 508258 512255
 2.00 504276 505265 503256 500253 497250 493244 487239 480241
      476238 475240 481244 485253 487260 491267 497273 500275
      504276 504276
 3.00 509249 508243 506237 504234 500230 498226 494224 493230
      495233 497238 500242 503246 506249 509249
 3.00 501272 501267 500261 498256 495252 493248 491245 488244
      487250 489254 491260 493264 496267 499271 501272
 4.00 498265 498263 498260 496257 495254 494252 492251 492250
      491248 489250 489252 490254 491255 491257 492258 493259
      493261 494262 495264 496265 497266 498265
 4.00 501235 500234 498232 497230 496228 495227 495228 495230
      495231 496233 497234 498235 499237 501235
 5.00 494256 493255 492253 491253 492254 493256 493257 494256

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 423314 428308 434301 439293 445286 451281 457277 471269
      477263 483258 489250 492248 496247 499247 504248 510249
      513248 517241 522232 526222 529218 532215 535215 539213
      540205 539200 542190 545182 556125 555122 551121 549120
      545122 535131 530135 527139 524135 524131 520128 517127
      513126 510123 509116 510104 509097 506092 503091 498093
      495100 489106 486114 482112 481109 480104 478100 478092
      475088 473086 471082 470078 468073 465070 462069 450075
      447070 445070 443072 444075 449080 455083 457082 459082
      461084 462089 463096 460100 456099 453096 450093 446092
      442092 440090 426091 427096 425102 422103 420105 420109
      417111 413112 409107 402110 401113 401116 405123 410129
      412132 413135 413139 411144 408147 402151 398159 399162
      399167 398171 400174 404182 403188 405191 406195 408196
      413192 416189 421189 424192 424195 418200 412200 407206
      403205 401202 385194 383192 380193 378196 380200 384207
      389212 395217 398220 399223 392225 385223 379226 377228
      376235 376240 377244 381250 383253 382257 379267 378275
      379280 383282 388283 389287 397293 400294 402297 399305
 0.01 549039 549023 550007 548994 546982 537933 536925 535921
      534913 533908 527883 519867 513858 511855 508853 505849
      502849 499852 498857 499865 500871 501885 501893 502898
      503905 502912 498922 496926 495932 496937 499940 503941
      505944 507952 507961 504972 500980 497985 497989 499999
      501006 501013 499025 499033 500038 504045 508048 511048
      514046 517047 519049 525055 529060 532064 538064 542059
      545054 549039
 0.01 533728 529707 527699 525695 522688 514674 511670 507671
      503663 500656 495648 490641 485637 478635 473639 472643
      471648 470653 471658 472670 473681 471693 467699 463698
      460699 455703 447707 445712 442711 440713 441717 444726
      450729 453726 456722 464720 468722 470726 478742 481749
      484753 487754 500753 504752 506753 512758 515759 519759
      525754 530741 533733 533728
 0.01 484230 484227 482227 481229 482229 483230 484230
 0.01 466194 464192 464191 464189 463187 461187 461188 460190
      460193 460195 462195 464195 466194
 0.01 478877 477860 475845 469833 466819 464814 461810 458806
      456800 449770 448761 446756 447749 448743 447739 445737
      440737 438738 435736 434732 434727 432727 427729 429731
      431738 429745 423744 422744 422747 421756 420761 422766
      424772 424775 421777 416776 411779 409782 405787 400790
      394791 391791 390793 386797 385802 390801 398795 405795
      409798 414809 418809 422806 428803 431800 434797 436799
      439803 437809 434814 434819 437823 441827 446829 450831
      453835 450840 449846 446851 445856 448860 452860 455855
      456850 459847 462848 463854 465863 467865 467870 471883
      473885 475883 478877
 0.01 309754 309747 307743 303742 299744 291751 286758 278761
      271767 268762 265759 262761 260764 257773 253781 249791
      245799 236814 233824 231834 230839 230845 231851 233855
      234860 233864 230874 230878 231883 233887 237889 240889
      244885 247877 251868 253859 259840 260830 258824 256821
      251819 249813 251810 257803 268800 278804 281801 283798
      287789 293782 298773 302766 309754
 0.01 283987 280975 281971 283968 283962 281956 281948 281935
      279931 272930 266929 261931 257933 253937 246945 245951
      248954 252960 254964 255968 254971 248973 249977 249982
      247984 249988 255991 259990 259995 255998 253002 256005
      262008 263015 265021 267023 268019 267015 269011 269005
      268999 270991 270988 273987 279989 283987
 0.25 525193 525185 525179 524175 521171 519166 518161 516158
      511156 508154 506150 503146 499144 486130 478125 471127
      469133 467137 458137 455140 453145 449147 444147 438146
      435150 434153 436159 439162 445167 446172 448175 449179
      446182 443183 441189 439194 440199 438207 436210 432212
      427211 424217 422220 420225 420228 418228 416225 416219
      414215 408214 400209 396208 393205 389205 391210 395212
      398215 404224 403226 399227 395228 392230 390234 389242
      389251 390262 393266 397266 406264 414269 417272 418276
      418282 416285 414289 412296 412300 416303 420302 423299
      436284 441276 446270 458260 471252 479247 485242 486239
      485236 482234 477227 478223 482223 486224 490227 494234
      496236 500235 502227 502220 498211 491203 487201 483200
      469205 464207 459205 455209 452208 449204 449201 451195
      454191 456187 459185 465180 467175 470175 473177 475182
      479184 482181 489180 498182 502182 505187 508191 515194
      523196 525193
 0.25 504697 503692 501686 498686 497688 495693 494697 492702
      492710 496714 499714 501710 503705 504699 504697
 0.25 479145 478143 477142 475142 474144 475145 476146 478146
      479145
 0.25 462171 463169 462166 462165 461163 461162 459162 457162
      456164 455166 455167 455169 456172 456173 458173 460173
      462171 462171
 0.25 450802 450799 449799 448797 448795 447795 447797 447800
      448802 448804 450802 450802
 0.25 425230 424228 423227 423226 421226 423228 423229 424231
      425230
 0.25 437765 437763 436760 436758 436756 435753 434754 433754
      432756 431757 430757 429759 429762 430764 431766 431767
      432769 433770 435769 435768 436767 437765
 0.25 267781 266778 262780 259783 256788 253792 250797 247802
      248806 252804 255801 261798 263792 265786 267781
 0.25 243831 241827 239829 238832 236835 236838 235841 235844
      235846 238846 239844 240840 241837 242833 243831
 0.50 516180 514173 509167 504164 497162 487158 482154 476151
      471146 468143 465142 461143 459146 459152 461156 468167
      471169 473168 480168 490173 497175 501176 505178 508183
      512184 514183 516180
 0.50 498224 498218 496213 491206 487204 482203 473205 466208
      460208 457212 451212 444213 428218 424222 424225 426227
      428231 426235 418232 413229 413223 413219 410219 402212
      399213 400215 403218 406221 406227 402229 397229 394232
      393235 393239 394250 395255 398259 405257 416257 420260
      422264 423275 422281 420288 418294 421296 426288 432282
      435279 438274 443267 449260 456255 469245 476242 480239
      480235 475227 475224 476222 480221 485221 491223 493227
      496227 498224
 0.50 500152 496148 493142 489137 486133 479130 475131 472133
      472138 474139 479138 485140 490144 493148 497152 500152
 0.50 463178 461176 458176 454175 453172 452168 451168 449170
      450173 451176 453178 454181 457183 459182 462181 463178
 1.00 487215 486210 484209 479208 467211 462211 457214 445216
      439216 435220 431221 429224 432229 435232 435235 431239
      416235 411235 403234 399234 396235 397240 399246 402249
      405248 410247 414246 418248 425250 429255 434267 438265
      442258 445252 449248 455248 460246 470238 474237 476235
      474232 468234 467230 468226 472221 477218 483217 487215
 1.00 476159 475156 474155 472153 471155 471158 472159 473160
      475160 476159
 1.50 482214 480213 479213 477212 477214 479213 480214 482214
 1.50 477215 473213 469214 461214 458215 454215 447218 439218
      437222 438226 443232 439236 436239 435245 434252 438254
      443249 448244 452243 456243 463240 464236 462236 455234
      451233 447230 453224 462227 467222 477215
 1.50 428242 428241 427240 426239 424238 423238 421237 419237
      418236 416236 415239 417241 418242 419242 420243 422244
      423244 425245 426244 427244 428242
 2.00 464221 463218 459217 454216 450219 447220 441219 442222
      446224 450223 453222 458224 460225 462224 464221 464221
 2.00 458239 458236 455235 453235 450235 446234 444235 441237
      440239 439243 441245 443243 445243 449242 450241 454241
      456240 458239
 2.00 425241 424241 422240 421241 422241 424242 425241


24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 524262 522254 519249 520241 522235 525222 526213 526205
      526179 523171 518163 514158 509155 503146 497140 489133
      486130 480128 477126 474123 472118 472112 472104 472097
      467092 463090 460085 458079 456069 454063 451060 447058
      444058 440062 439066 438069 434071 435074 444076 448080
      451086 451089 451093 447095 435094 428089 427093 428099
      421107 421109 419112 415111 412108 409102 407102 404108
      401111 403116 406117 410120 415120 422117 427117 428122
      434119 438117 440116 443117 450118 454114 458116 460118
      461121 459126 455130 453133 453137 451141 445145 442144
      440141 437141 435148 433159 431164 429165 425162 421158
      419152 417153 414158 417166 415175 413181 414186 420192
      422193 423197 422201 419201 412199 408201 404204 398203
      394202 390206 390210 391210 393215 397218 400220 402224
      398227 395227 392229 387229 384231 384233 387239 389241
      391243 390250 392256 398258 403259 406262 411272 413282
      421289 424290 428289 434290 439288 447284 451283 456285
      460288 464288 468288 471287 480282 486278 489278 493281
      498286 503290 508291 513289
 0.01 534829 533801 532787 532780 530776 522761 509760 484783
      474785 467788 454795 447800 441806 433811 428816 423822
      418827 407836 401844 395850 392853 392858 392863 394867
      400865 404860 420853 424852 428849 434842 438836 443830
      446828 451827 453831 451835 448842 444848 443852 447855
      448860 452860 457861 459863 460876 459887 458891 458899
      460907 461911 464913 468912 471909 474910 473913 473921
      474932 471937 470950 467959 470966 477967 480973 482977
      488983 489995 493003 496003 500006 503008 503015 504025
      504029 507032 509035 511035 516035 523033 525031 526025
      526017 527012 533994 534984 535968 535935 535906 532854
      534841 534832 534829
 0.01 426063 426058 425058 423058 423060 421062 418063 416059
      410057 406055 399055 397057 391064 394066 398063 400061
      403062 401067 397071 399074 404072 408077 415076 419069
      422069 424065 426063
 0.01 227892 232892 236889 239890 238893 237899 240910 242913
      241916 238915 235918 232922 233928 236938 235950 238954
      243957 250956 253953 259947 262947 262951 261956 274966
      277968 280967 282961 287959 294951 300941 302937 307935
      310933 312928 312921 317920 319918 317914 317902 315894
      311890 306888 303891 296899 292900 289899 289895 289891
      291889 291885 278888 267888 265889 263888 260882 241880
      244869 252869 259864 266857 271858 274860 277869 282873
      288873 290870 293872 296876 299878 303882 305880 305874
      307869 308866 310865 313864 315860 314856 310856 308853
      310842 309836 308833 306831 305829 307827 314827 321832
      327831 331835 335835 339832 342830 342825 341822 344822
      348818 354817 359805 360801 356799 351798 348794 346789
      342788 340787 338784 336780 329771 321769 316769 311770
      305772 300772 287773 282772 277774 272775 271769 268766
      263768 259771 257776 253783 247788 234830 231841 227850
      224859 227868 225884
 0.01 333817 333815 333813 333811 333809 331807 329805 327806
      326806 324808 323810 323812 324814 325814 326816 327816
      328817 330817 330818 332819 333817
 0.01 281825 276820 273818 271816 267810 265806 261806 254808
      249812 248818 248822 254827 257834 264833 271830 276830
      280827 281825
 0.25 519263 516246 513232 511225 509219 508211 510207 512206
      516208 519208 521204 521199 521191 520182 514173 505164
      500158 495160 492154 493147 492142 488136 486134 483134
      481137 484140 484145 483150 477151 465146 462149 460158
      457162 452164 449166 448170 449176 454186 458184 463181
      466180 468182 471183 473186 477192 479196 477200 475202
      470202 466207 461208 457212 453214 447217 440216 436219
      430219 427223 429229 426233 422233 418232 411230 407236
      406239 406243 409247 430262 451266 458268 464271 469273
      473273 483268 487268 490270 494273 504281 508282 509273
      510268 515268 519263
 0.25 527809 527799 525792 522788 519786 507804 500812 496822
      494830 494836 495841 494848 495858 493864 491870 491876
      492892 493900 495905 501915 509919 515918 518915 521903
      523896 523888 524873 524854 525839 526822 527809
 0.25 477842 476840 474842 473842 472843 473843 475844 476844
      477842
 0.25 444108 444107 443106 442105 441105 440105 439106 438107
      438109 440109 442109 444110 444108
 0.25 325786 323780 320778 312779 296781 278782 269784 261788
      257794 255797 255801 264802 271804 274805 276808 275814
      279817 284816 290815 295814 299813 303811 306809 317798
      325786
 0.25 300846 299844 296843 293843 290842 286843 285846 285848
      286850 289850 292851 294853 296851 300849 300846
 0.25 296931 293922 291918 288914 282912 275915 266912 263909
      261905 257896 255893 251892 246894 244898 247907 248912
      248918 245925 244930 244935 246940 248943 252941 255937
      262933 267932 270935 272938 275941 282941 287942 290939
      296931
 0.25 248849 249839 249833 245831 240836 237842 233848 229854
      230860 231864 233867 237862 244859 247852 248849
 0.50 515259 516253 515249 514242 512236 508230 498206 493202
      489198 482201 477205 471205 467210 464211 453216 449219
      443220 441221 442224 446227 452226 454228 454231 444235
      442238 443243 445245 448245 458254 467260 472266 478266
      482263 487263 492268 498271 503273 504270 503261 505256
      507257 511260 515259
 0.50 501175 501169 500165 495164 488160 486157 482156 474155
      470155 468157 470165 475171 478174 479177 482184 486183
      488180 495179 500176 501175
 0.50 431243 430241 428238 425237 421236 418235 414235 412238
      413241 417243 420245 421246 425247 427247 430246 431243
 0.50 320784 315781 309782 301784 294784 287786 280787 274789
      269789 264792 263795 264798 269801 274801 279800 283803
      284807 283809 283813 286814 294812 298809 302806 306801
      311797 315795 320790 320784
 0.50 291931 291927 290925 288922 285918 281918 277920 275923
      274929 274931 276935 281936 285935 289933 291931
 0.50 258929 258923 258917 257913 253909 250913 250919 249923
      248929 248933 249937 252937 255933 257931 258929
 1.00 504239 502227 499216 496210 491207 487205 483204 474209
      467213 458218 455221 457224 475224 471231 468233 459235
      454235 451238 453242 459243 478254 484257 489260 493263
      498263 494238 500241 504239
 1.00 487231 487228 487226 486224 484223 484222 483221 481221
      479222 478223 477224 476225 477226 478228 480228 480229
      481231 481234 483235 484233 486233 486232 487231
 1.00 317789 318786 316784 311785 305786 302787 296788 291791
      291795 294799 297800 301800 305798 308796 312794 315791
      317789
 1.00 296807 296805 294803 292803 291803 289803 289804 288806
      287807 286808 286809 285810 286812 288812 289810 291810
      293810 293809 295808 296807
 1.50 500235 498224 497219 494215 490213 488210 483207 479208
      472213 465217 465219 468220 471219 480219 485220 488219
      491223 492227 494233 498236 500235
 1.50 495259 495254 493251 490242 489239 486238 483237 481235
      479231 476230 474230 471233 468240 469243 472246 479249
      487253 491258 495259
 1.50 462223 464221 462220 461220 460220 459221 458222 459222
      460223 462223 462223
 1.50 312790 311788 309787 307788 306789 304789 302790 300790
      298791 297791 295792 295794 297796 297797 299797 301797
      303796 304795 306794 308793 309792 310792 311791 312790
 1.50 293807 293806 291806 289807 289808 291808 293808 293807
 2.00 494256 491250 489244 487242 485244 482242 482239 479233
      476231 474232 472234 470238 471243 473244 479247 486249
      490255 491257 494256
 2.00 485217 485215 485212 484211 483209 481209 479210 477212
      477215 478216 480217 481218 483218 485218 485217
 3.00 479243 480241 480239 479236 478233 476233 474233 473234
      472236 472239 473241 473242 475243 476243 478244 479243
 4.00 478241 479238 478236 477235 476234 475235 474236 473237
      473239 475241 476242 478241 478241
 5.00 477238 475236 475237 475240 477238 477238


$$

Record Report from: NOAA-NWS
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather & modified by: SE Lincoln Weather