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NWS Baltimore, MD/Washington, DC/Sterling, VA Weather Forecast Office

NWS Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: LWX
Regional NWS Weather Office: Baltimore, MD/Washington, DC/Sterling, VA

000
FXUS61 KLWX 191339
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
939 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the eastern United
States through early next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose is expected
to track north off the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday. Refer
to the National Hurricane Center`s website hurricanes.gov for the
latest on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure will remain overhead through tonight
while surface high over northern New England wedges down into
the Mid-Atlantic. Jose will continue to move northward...passing
us by well offshore.

Low-level moisture trapped underneath the subsidence inversion
has resulted areas of low clouds this morning...especially east
of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. The low clouds should
gradually mix out late this morning through this afternoon.
Increasing sunshine will allow for more warm conditions with max
temps in the lower 80s across most areas.

For locations near the Bay...moisture from Jose will bring more
clouds and perhaps even an isolated shower. However...most of
the time will be dry. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected
close to the Bay.

Jose will continue to move off t the northeast tonight while
high pressure builds overhead. More mild conditions are expected
with min temps ranging from the 50s n the Potomac Highlands to
the mid and upper 60s in downtown Washington and Baltimore.
Areas of fog are expected overnight...especially across central
Virginia and for valley locations west of the Blue Ridge
Mountains. This is where the flow will light and the atmosphere
is most likely to decouple. Farther east...fog is less likely
because of a sustained light northwest flow behind Jose.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure will be gradually strengthening over the
region Wed through the weekend keeping generally warm and dry
conditions. Models, however, do show a shortwave-trough over the
OH valley weakening as it approaches the Appalachians. These
could result in a few diurnal showers over the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A firm ridge of high pressure will ensure that our region remains
dry with warm temperatures Friday through Monday. A stray shower or
two can`t ruled out over the highest ridges of the Potomac Highlands
due to daytime heating. High temperatures could be about 10 degrees
above average for this third week of September. Highs ranging from
near 80 in the western ridges and along the coastal waters of the
Chesapeake Bay to the middle 80s elsewhere.

Remnants of Jose could still linger off of the mid-Atlantic Coast
or somewhere south of southern New England and the tropical system,
Maria, may try to move northward from near the Bahama Islands and be
somewhere in the western Atlantic. There are still uncertainties
with both tropical features. Check out the National Hurricane
Center`s website on both features.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR cigs should gradually lift to VFR levels late this morning
into early this afternoon for the eastern terminals. Skies
clear tonight but patchy dense fog could develop at the usual
sites like KCHO and KMRB.

VFR conditions Friday through Monday. Winds generally northeast
around 5 knots each afternoon, then light and variable each
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Will continue with a Small Craft Advisory for the waters into
this evening...but it will be marginal across the upper Tidal
Potomac River and northern Chesapeake Bay. Will continue with a
Small Craft Advisory for the middle portion of the Bay and the
lower Tidal Potomac River tonight...and it may need to be
extended into Wednesday. Winds will diminish later Wednesday
through Thursday as high pressure builds overhead.

No marine hazards expected Friday through Monday. Winds
northeast 5 to 10 knots each afternoon, then northeast around 5
knots each night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding expected at Straits Point over the next
several high tide cycles. CF.Y has been extended. Elsewhere...a
northwest wind may keep water levels below minor flood
thresholds but confidence is low because of a build up of water
near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. This water will try to
come back north up the Bay during the next high tide cycle
tonight into Wednesday...despite the northwest flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/LFR
NEAR TERM...BJL/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/LFR/KLW
MARINE...BJL/LFR/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

Weather Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather & modified by: SE Lincoln Weather