SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

...Day 3/Thursday - Southern California...
A shortwave trough will advance southeastward from the Four Corners
region into the southern Plains, while a midlevel ridge gradually
deamplifies over the West Coast. As a result, surface high pressure
will persist across the Intermountain West, favoring dry/windy
offshore flow across much of southern CA. Sustained surface winds of
20+ mph (with higher gusts) will coincide with single-digit to lower
teens RH into Day 3/Thursday afternoon. Given very dry fuels,
critical fire-weather conditions are expected.

The pressure gradient will weaken substantially by Day 4/Friday,
though dry conditions will persist -- with locally breezy/gusty
winds still possible over terrain-favored areas. By Day 5/Saturday,
onshore flow and the potential for rain will overspread southern CA,
reducing the overall fire-weather risk.

...Southwest and Southern Plains...
On Day 3/Thursday, dry/breezy conditions are expected across
portions of southern/central AZ -- along the southern periphery of
the expansive surface high pressure. While elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently 
expected. On Day 4/Friday, dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions will
develop across the southern Plains, as westerly flow strengthens
across the southern Rockies. Current indications are that marginal
fuels will keep any fire-weather concerns localized. Dry/windy
conditions are once again expected across the Southwest on Day
5/Saturday -- ahead of a strong midlevel trough moving across the
southern Great Basin. However, fuels do not appear supportive of
Critical probabilities at this time.

..Weinman.. 01/21/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


Read more