RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...
...Synopsis...
A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains
as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX
Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast
KS.
...Southern Plains...
Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains
with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour
observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High
Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already
observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust
low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds
are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the
surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak
overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon.
Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the
development of critical to extremely critical fire weather
conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian
Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to
the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east
into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and
southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic
guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under
the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph
possible along/off the Caprock in western TX.
00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS
sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%.
Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full
insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will
promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions
hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible -
especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel
guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area
with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the
KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently
been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically
low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern
Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather
threat.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening
lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast
OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water
content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial
storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and
support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of
fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts
are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire
weather conditions.
...Midwest...
Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through
the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite
increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote
RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs
are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal
rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a
wind-driven threat.
..Moore.. 03/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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