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000
ABNT20 KNHC 211832
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located a little less than two hundred miles southeast
of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and on Hurricane Maria, located more
than a hundred miles southeast of Grand Turk Island.

An elongated low pressure system, the remnants of Lee, is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity about midway between
the Azores and Lesser Antilles. Upper-level winds are expected to be
unfavorable for significant development during the next few days.
The low is forecast to move slowly northward over the open waters of
the central Atlantic Ocean for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)

...JOSE MOVING LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 21
 the center of Jose was located near 39.6, -67.9
 with movement Stationary.
 The minimum central pressure was 987 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 66

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 212035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number  66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...JOSE MOVING LITTLE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 67.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 67.9 West.  Jose is
currently stationary, and the system is expected to meander well
offshore of the coast of southeastern New England during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Jose is expected to become post-tropical on Friday.

Jose is a large system.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.  A sustained wind of 39
mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported
at the Nantucket airport.  An unofficial observing site in Vineyard
Haven on Martha's Vineyard just reported a sustained wind of 42
mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next couple of days.  For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Cape Cod and the offshore
islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 66

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 212034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  66
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  67.9W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 160SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  67.9W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  67.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.5N  68.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.5N  68.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 39.2N  68.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 39.0N  68.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.9N  67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N  67.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 66

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 212037
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Jose is still producing some convective bands well to the north and
west of the center.  The outer-most bands are brushing the coast of
extreme southeastern New England, where tropical-storm-force winds,
especially in gusts, have been occurring for much of the day.  An
ASCAT pass from earlier today showed maximum winds near 45 kt, and
since the cyclone appears to have weakened since that time, the
initial wind speed is lowered slightly to that value.

Cool waters, dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause
Jose to continue weakening, and model simulated satellite images
suggest that Jose should become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24
hours, or sooner.  The intensity models are in very good agreement,
and the NHC forecast is an update of the previous one.

Jose has been meandering off the southern New England coastline
during the past several hours.  Since the cyclone is expected to
remain in weak steering currents, little motion is forecast during
the next few days.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and in general agreement with the consensus aids.

The initial wind radii have been modified based on ASCAT data from
around 1500 UTC.  The forecast wind radii follows the guidance
provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are
expected to continue through tonight.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 39.6N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 39.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 39.5N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/0600Z 39.2N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  23/1800Z 39.0N  68.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/1800Z 38.9N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 66

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017


000
FONT12 KNHC 212035
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  66             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017               
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YARMOUTH NS    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BOSTON MA      34  6   4(10)   1(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 16   6(22)   3(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  9   4(13)   3(16)   X(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  7   4(11)   3(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ALBANY NY      34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  9   5(14)   3(17)   X(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ISLIP NY       34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Storm Jose Graphics


Tropical Storm Jose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 20:43:53 GMT

Tropical Storm Jose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 21:25:29 GMT

Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at 516 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017


Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 21
 the center of Maria was located near 20.8, -69.8
 with movement NW at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 960 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 23

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 212033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic west of Cabo Engano.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 69.8 West.  Maria is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion
continuing through Saturday.  On the forecast track, Maria's
eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic this evening, and then move near or just east of
the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across
portions of the Dominican Republic.  Tropical storm conditions are
beginning to spread across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected tonight
or early Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
central Bahamas beginning late Friday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Saturday:

Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total
amounts 40 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and
Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to
8 inches
Northern Haiti...4 to 8 inches

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.  These swells will
reach the remainder of the Bahamas tonight and should reach portions
of the United States southeastern coast on Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 23

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 212032
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  69.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 120SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  69.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  69.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N  70.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N  71.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.5N  71.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N  72.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.9N  72.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 31.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 33.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N  69.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 212034
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

The last pass of today's Air Force reconnaissance flight found
maximum flight-level winds of 117 kt in the northeastern eyewall,
which supported increasing the intensity to 105 kt in the 2 PM
intermediate advisory.  The SFMR instrument continued to report
higher winds, as was mentioned in the previous discussion.  However,
Maria has been moving over the Navidad and Silver Banks to the
north of the Dominican Republic, where water depths are less than
30 meters deep in some places, and it is likely that shoaling
effects inflated some of these numbers.

Maria continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt, around the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of
Bermuda.  As Maria moves around this high, and toward an elongated
trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the
Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to turn north-northwestward within
24 hours and then north-northeastward by the end of the forecast
period.  This motion will take Maria's center very close to the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the
next 24 hours, but the hurricane should then stay over the waters
of the western Atlantic through day 5.  The track models remain
stable, and there is very little cross-track spread even at day 5.
The guidance has slowed down a bit by the end of the forecast
period due to Maria possibly interacting with a shortwave trough
moving off the southeastern U.S. coast, and the new NHC forecast is
therefore a little slower than the previous one at that time.

SHIPS diagnostics indicate that southwesterly shear will be
increasing over Maria during the next 12-24 hours, even though the
hurricane will begin to move over an area of higher oceanic heat
content.  While it can't be ruled out that Maria might still
strengthen a bit, the preponderance of the guidance suggests that
the cyclone will only maintain its intensity for the next 12 hours
and then begin a gradual decrease in strength on Friday.  That
trend should continue through the end of the forecast period, but
Maria is expected to remain a hurricane through day 5.  For now,
the NHC forecast remains just above the intensity consensus,
hedging toward the slower decay shown by the SHIPS model.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should
continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these
life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

3. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of
the southeastern United States on Friday.  These swells are likely
to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the
coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain
well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 20.8N  69.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 21.6N  70.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 23.0N  71.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 24.5N  71.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 26.1N  72.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 28.9N  72.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 31.0N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 33.0N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017


000
FONT15 KNHC 212033
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  11(20)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  2   5( 7)  13(20)   7(27)   5(32)   1(33)   X(33)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  5  41(46)   7(53)   3(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)
MAYAGUANA      50  2   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRAND TURK     34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND TURK     50 76   6(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
GRAND TURK     64 28  14(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LES CAYES      34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PUERTO PLATA   50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA   64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Hurricane Maria Graphics


Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 20:40:58 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
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