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Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook
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Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS02 KWNS 020527
SWODY2
SPC AC 020526
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into
Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains.
...Synopsis...
As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes
and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern
Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains.
Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the
region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX.
Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over
the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from
Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return
north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into
KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening. A cold front will push
southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue
across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight.
Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move
across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting
with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX
into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and
shear will be weak.
...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late...
As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40
kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form
and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will
counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with
frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering
winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and
continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to
time with the stronger updrafts.
...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening...
Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX
into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows
across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur
over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger
instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk
cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak
heating.
..Jewell.. 05/02/2024
$$
