NWS CPC Near Term Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Long Term Outlooks


6 Day to 3 Month Temperature Outlook
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Days 6-10 | Days 8-14 | One Month | Three Month

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Day 1

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Maps and Data Courtesy of NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center.
 Prognostic Discussion
Prognostic Discussion

554
FXUS06 KWBC 202208
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST NORTHWEST OF
HUDSON BAY EXTENDING EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. RIDGES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE FLOW PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED. THE
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE SMALL TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY`S MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE CANADIAN, EUROPEAN, AND GEFS MODEL
SUITES. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE ALEUTIANS, AND MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE.

PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A STRONG
RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS
RIDGING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIANS.
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

THE DEEP TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND/OR ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS, AND MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA WHERE BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED DUE TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SOUTHEAST RIDGE.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF COLORADO, NEW MEXICO,
AND EASTERN TEXAS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 05, 2018

THE MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO
THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED
CIRCULATION FEATURES ARE INDICATED AND THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IS
SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS AND THE EAST COAST AND  SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

A DEEP TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. A RIDGE
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIANS. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW
TILTS THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES OF
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY, THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST, AND
FLORIDA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
MONTANA, COLORADO, NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE UTAH,
ARIZONA, NEVADA, AND CALIFORNIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S
0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 10

ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS

FORECASTER: LUKE H

NOTES:

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890213 - 19550223 - 19570131 - 19590205 - 19660214

ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890201 - 19550224 - 19570131 - 19590206 - 20010212

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 - MAR 02, 2018

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    N
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    N
NEW MEXICO  B    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    B


8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 06, 2018

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    N
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    N
NEW MEXICO  B    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        N    B     CONN        N    B     RHODE IS    N    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS
NFDPMDMRD.

$$

Record Report from: NOAA-NWS
Script developed by: El Dorado Weather & modified by: SE Lincoln Weather