Clifton, Virginia Weather

682
FXUS61 KLWX 280216
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
916 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trof will pass through the area Tuesday. A cold front
will cross the area Wednesday. High pressure will build over
the region Thursday, then move offshore Thursday night into
Friday as low pressure takes shape over the Midwest. This area
of low pressure will move toward the area for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Becoming increasingly concerned of a high-end downslope wind
event on the eastern facing adjacent slopes of the Allegheny
Front. Noteworthy signature of probability of >50 kt gusts in
the High Wind Warning from nearly all guidance. 18Z EPS does
have 30-60% probability of >64 kt gusts in Grant County, WV.
Given geography with 4kft peaks to the west in Tucker County,
WV, the max in this downslope environment makes sense. Gusts of
60-70 mph likely in the High Wind Warning. Would not be
surprised with a locally higher gust on an eastern facing slope
in favorable downslope area. Potential for power outages
increases as winds increase late tonight before peaking shortly
after sunrise and a downward trend by midday. Previous
discussion follows...

Mostly clear this evening, then increasing mid-high level clouds
after midnight. Winds will shift to a WSW direction and start
picking up speed at higher elevs and height gradient
strengthens. 850 mb wind speeds range in the 45-55 kt with the
NAM having the strongest wind speeds. Wind Warnings and
Advisories are in effect from midnight to Noon Tuesday for the
higher elevations. Winds will begin to relax rapidly during the
afternoon tomorrow. A quick inch of snow is possible across
western Garrett overnight into Tue morning. Some cooling aloft
Tue will result in highs about 5F degs cooler than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Modified Arctic air mass will move into the area Wed night
behind a strong dry cold front Wed afternoon. It will be very
mild ahead of the frontal passage Wed with highs in the low to
mid 50s. This will be a dry frontal passage except in the
mountains where some snow showers are possible Wed afternoon and night.
Winds will be on the increase shortly after daybreak with gusts
around 30 mph, higher up to 45 mph in the mountains where
additional wind advisories are possible. Colder Wed night as
winds diminish and high pressure builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to influence the area Thursday,
with dry conditions and highs in the mid to upper 40s across the
lower elevations with mid to upper 30s along the Allegheny
Front. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s for most areas. A
large low pressure system will approach from the west- southwest
late in the week and into the weekend. Cannot rule out a brief
period of mixed precipitation early Friday morning before a
plain rain begins to overspread the area heading into the
weekend. Some areas may near an inch of QPF into Saturday.
Highest PoPs will likely be over the area on Friday before
slowly diminishing late Saturday as the low moves further
offshore. High pressure builds back in late in the weekend and
into early next week. Highs will mostly be in the 40s for the
lower elevations through the period with upper 30s to low 40s
for the mountains. Some areas across central VA and southern MD
may near 60 degrees by Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SW winds becoming WSW tonight, then NW to W Tue. Gusts to 25-30
kt expected Tue and Wed respectively.

VFR conditions are expected Thursday with high pressure nearby with
northwest winds early becoming south-southwesterly heading into
Friday with gusts 20 to 25 knots possible. Sub-VFR conditions are
possible Friday as showers begin to overspread the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions tonight into Tue morning, then Tue night through
into Thu morning. Gale conditions seem unlikely at this time,
but will leave Gale Watch in effect for now.

SCA winds are possible over the waters Thursday into Friday with
increasing rain shower potential late Thursday night through Friday
with gusts 15 to 20 knots possible at times.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
     Gale Watch Wednesday afternoon for MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for MDZ001.
     High Wind Warning until noon EST Tuesday for MDZ501-502.
VA...Wind Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for VAZ503-504.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Tuesday for VAZ507-508.
WV...High Wind Warning until noon EST Tuesday for WVZ501>506.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Tuesday for WVZ050-051-055.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     Gale Watch Wednesday afternoon for ANZ530>532-535-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ535-
     536-538-542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/CPB
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...LFR/ADM
MARINE...LFR/ADM